Vice President Kamala Harris is significantly underperforming among Hispanic voters, a key demographic that has historically supported the Democratic Party. According to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris' current lead over Donald Trump among Latinos stands at only 17 percent, a dramatic drop from the margins seen in previous elections. This comes as a major concern for the Harris campaign, given that both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton performed far better with the same group in past elections.
In 2020, Biden held a 33-point advantage over Trump in exit polls among Hispanic voters, and Clinton enjoyed an even more significant 40-point lead in 2016. Despite these strong showings, both Biden and Clinton struggled in broader contests, with Clinton notably losing the election. Harris’ 17-point lead, therefore, represents a staggering 23-point decrease compared to Clinton’s support among Latinos, highlighting a potential vulnerability that Republicans are eager to exploit.
Normal Americans can’t compete with this #Corruption .
“U.S. representatives and their staff have taken at least 17,000 trips since 2012 that were paid for by private parties, many of them nonprofits with deep ties to lobbyists and special interests.”https://t.co/52cdewVsV8
— Space Cadet (@ScottCDunn) September 23, 2024
Trump’s growing appeal with Hispanic voters, especially in key battleground states like Arizona and Nevada, could prove decisive in the 2024 election. According to Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s campaign pollster, Trump is either leading or closely tied with Harris among Latinos in these states, where Hispanics make up a substantial portion of the electorate. Fabrizio attributes this shift to Hispanic voters’ concerns over the economy, personal security, and their aspirations for the American dream, which have increasingly aligned them with the Republican Party.
The economic issues facing the country appear to be a significant factor in this shift. As of 2024, there are 36.2 million eligible Hispanic voters, up from 32.3 million in 2020. Many within this group have expressed dissatisfaction with the current economic situation, particularly inflation, which they feel the Biden administration has not adequately addressed. This disillusionment may be prompting many Hispanics, especially second- and third-generation immigrants, to reconsider their political affiliations.
Ya see Janet Jackson, Kamala is Indian one day. Then the next day she plays Hispanic. Then the next day, black. Whatever works best politically for the situation. https://t.co/mREMgAbgTu
— DJ Politix (@PolitixDj) September 22, 2024
Another contributing factor is the evolving socioeconomic status of many Hispanic Americans. According to Fabrizio, as Hispanic communities become more established and achieve higher economic standing, they are increasingly drawn to the Republican Party's messaging on business, taxes, and individual responsibility. The Harris campaign, meanwhile, is struggling to connect with these voters on these issues, a shortfall that could prove costly in key swing states.
This shift is already evident in places like Florida, where Trump performed well with Cuban Americans and Venezuelan Americans in 2020. The Biden-Harris administration has faced challenges in maintaining support in these communities, especially given their strong anti-socialist sentiments and economic concerns. The Republican Party has capitalized on this, positioning itself as the champion of economic opportunity and personal safety.
Furthermore, immigration, an issue once considered a Democratic stronghold, is now playing to Trump’s advantage. His hardline stance on border security and deportation resonates with a growing number of Hispanic voters, particularly those who prioritize legal immigration and economic stability over the progressive immigration policies of the current administration.
ABC News’ reporting also indicates that Harris must address these issues if she hopes to solidify her base among Hispanic voters. The current gap, if not remedied, could allow Trump to secure a substantial portion of the Hispanic vote, potentially shifting the outcome of the election.
